With Samsung vs Cloud 9 coming up at Worlds in a few hours, I will outline one of the multiple ways I model upsets. The general way players or teams can make upsets happen is by dragging their opponent into a specific field where their own expertise is superior to the opponents. Polt made a career off of this in his 2013+ career as he was worse than nearly every other player in the early game, but superior to most every player in the late to end game.
However when you’re not sure about how a style interacts with another players style, here is another way to do it. Right time, right people, right place. At DreamHack Malmo TyLoo upset Luminosity (now SK) in groups after they had won the Major.
For TyLoo, it was the right time as Luminosity had just won and weren’t aware of their own physical/mental limitations and tried to do another hardcore boot camp prior to Malmo. On the other hand, it was the perfect time for TyLoo to create an upset as no one had ever seen them play and it is likely that no one studied them very hard prior to the event.
It was the right people as TyLoo have enough firepower to threaten the top teams in the world if they are all on the game.
They had their match in the group stages of the event where the least amount of pressure is on for a new team. Also they got to play against Luminosity’s Cache which they have since permabanned.
The problem with Samsung and Cloud9 is that the right time and right people are in Samsung’s favor. Samsung has shown great adaptation from week 1 to week 2 and are over their World jitters, which is the most likely point to upset them. Samsung are superior in man to man except Impact? (I’m not an analyst, I’m just basing this off what I hear and read) And right place is inconsequential as neither team has a history of going deep into Worlds. Just a thought, I could be wrong as LoL isn’t something I study.