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Forecasting roster changes after the Kiev Major

Chiu on This
A short and regular opinion blast from Stephen Chiu

‘Chiu on This’ is a short and regular opinion blast

The Kiev Major for Dota 2 is not only an important competition in itself, but also the place where all of the players are in one place. This increases the chance of a roster shuffle, especially among players who are dissatisfied with their results or their teams. Given these circumstances, I’ll give some weather predictions for each team to roster shuffle:

TNC: 20 percent. I think this team is doing fairly well as a unit, so I don’t see a reason to change players any time before The International. I still add the 20 percent if they bomb out to someone awful in the playoff stage.

Faceless: 50-70 percent. This team has felt like it’s been on the last legs for awhile. They’ve had a rough time against international competition and with TI coming up, they must make a change if they want to have a chance at TI.

Invictus Gaming: 5 percent. Even if they bomb out of Kiev, I think it’s a low chance of roster shuffle.

Invictus Gaming.Vitality: 30 percent: A lot of these younger teams like to shuffle. This combined with other Chinese teams collapsing might mean a change. 40 percent. Dependent on the result. If they don’t at least get a top 4, I think they switch.

Secret: Depends on the RTZ weather cycle.

SG: 0 percemt. They have just reached the international stage. I think it’s crazy to change without testing the roster for longer.

Digital Chaos (DeMoN stack): 0 percent. I don’t think any of the players except for Abed are people that teams want to poach right now. Abed probably wants to ride out this year and the team is doing well.

VG.J: 99.9 percent. I love the fy-fenrir combo, but beyond one tournament this team has been a disaster. No way does this lineup stick together unless they win the tournament.

Newbee: 50 percent. As a team they have been the most consistent in the world. The only problem is that they’ve had a bad group stage and if they get eliminated they might decide to shuffle. In addition to that, xiao8 is out there.

Thunderbirds: 40 percent. This team only came together under dire circumstances and stuck together because of their results. So it’ll depend on how well they do here.

Evil Geniuses:┬áIf they lose in the round of 16, it’s 10 percent. They lose 30 percent for each round further they go. So at the semifinals, they are safe.

Team Liquid: 15 percent. I think the team believes in Kuroky, but if they fail another event so soon after DAC, the players might question themselves. The pressure of TI coming up and flailing results might bring this team to shatter if they don’t do well.

mousesports: 30 percent. They have been together for a long time and had a taste of success at Boston. After that result they slid back to their average. The question for the team is if they are satisfied with this or if they want to disband like MVP to find fortune elsewhere. For now I think they’ll want to stick it out til TI.

OG: 0 percent. I think their system and team identity is fairly set. There are better players, but I don’t think they’ll bother risking an upgrade in a position to rebuild to adjust the team identity when they’re a clear top two team in the world.

Team Random: 90 percent. I think it’s either get to the finals or disband for this team.



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