‘Chiu on This’ is a short and regular opinion blast
Earlier today, Launders pointed out that Flipsid3 got lucky to make it to the Major qualifiers this time as they had to win a triple overtime against Liquid to qualify for the Major. I agree that in that particular match, Flipsid3 was lucky. You run that match 10 times in a row (with the same conditions) and I think the majority of the times Liquid comes out on top there. But I’d also like to point out that because of how the Swiss system works, the majority of luck doesn’t just come in matches you play, but teams you draw. In which case, I’d argue that Flipsid3 wasn’t lucky so much as unlucky given who they could have faced in that particular Major quals. Even if we just look at round 5 in isolation, they had a 1-in-4 chance to draw Liquid, who I’d argue was the best team among the remaining four teams (IMT, Vega and Dig). If they get Vega or Dig, that is an easy win for Flipsid3.
Now onto the Major quals themselves. Here were the teams in attendance: Godsent, G2, Liquid, mouz, OpTic, HR, Flipsid3, BIG, Renegades, Cloud9, Vega, Penta, TyLoo, Immoratls, Tengri and Dignitas.
Here are the teams I thought should have been close to sure locks: G2, Liquid, mouz, HellRaisers, Cloud 9. Five teams here.
Here are teams I thought were on the bubble: IMT, F3, BIG. Three here
Here were teams I thought had a low chance to make it: OpTic, Penta, Dig. Three here.
Here were teams I was almost certain would lose: Godsent, Renegades, Vega, TyLoo, Tengri. Five here.
That is how I saw those teams at the time. There are four tiers here. In a five-team draw, a reasonable average a team can expect is two from tier 1, one from tier 2, one from tier 3, and one from tier 4.
Flipsid3 drew Renegades, HR, G2, Cloud 9 and Liquid.
One tier 4 team and four tier 1 teams. Did Flipsid3 need some luck to beat Liquid? I think so. Were they lucky overall in their Major qualifier? I don’t think so given that they drew four of the teams I considered favorites to outright win.