Rough Drafts “Guess the Lines” podcast: EU LCS Week 2

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Week 2 is every gambler’s favorite week of the year. Despite being told time and time again that small sample sizes are not to be trusted, fans and analysts alike love to jump on the first bandwagon that will accept them. You don’t need to look any further than the spring split to see that in action. After four games last season, Elements stood atop the standings at 3-1, whileOrigen was behind nearly everyone at 1-3. People were quick to assume doom for an Origen roster that ended up being a European League of Legends Championship Series Finalist, while Elements, now owned by FC Schalke, fell off and barely managed to stave off relegation. If you see the pattern there in this week’s standings, congratulations! You’ve got the same advantage that gambling experts use to take advantage of the increasingly bold claims made on a very small sample size by the rest of the betting public…

…Or at least you would, if it weren’t for the best-of-two format messing everything up. Yes, the European culture’s love of draws, at least according to Riot, has left those looking for value feeling left in the dust. Of course, it’s not just the gambling public that loses out given the Bo2 format: anyone who watched the NA LCS understands how exciting a decisive Game 3 is to watch, while players like Gilius openly bemoaned not getting another shot to make up for their previous loss. The only real winners seem to be Riot’s scheduling department. On the bright side, it’s still a far better format than the best-of-ones we were getting earlier, and as Kelsey Moser pointed out earlier this week, the quality of games has been fun for fans to watch, if only due to the sloppiness displayed by every European team on the Rift. Let’s hope Week 2 leads to some cleaner play, a much more meaningful sample size, and fewer draws tempting us with what could have been in a better format.

Today on the Rough Drafts Podcast, Chase “RedShirtKing” Wassenar and Walter “Ceades” Fedczuk take a moment to recognize the polarizing FORG1VEN retirement and how they’ll remember the player. They then move on to breaking down this week’s action, including how Origen’s downfall last week had little to do with the bot lane, whether Schalke 04’s growth is likely to stick around, and which of the many 0-2-0 teams are likely to step up this week. They close by making their smart money bets, which come juuuuust too late for the ultimate value dream.

Be sure to subscribe to the Esports Rough Drafts Podcast on iTunes to keep up with every episode here. And if you happened to leave a nice review along the way, that’d be cool too.

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